How to Access the Newsletter

There are two ways to access your newsletter: 1) from the web link provided in the email we send to you, and 2) from the secure member’s page on our home page at www.ConfidentStrategies.com.

We will send you an email early every month to let you know when the newsletter is ready. There will be a direct web link provided in the email. All you have to do is click on that link and you will have an opportunity to enter your Member ID and password. Then you will be taken directly to the newsletter.

We will also post each new investment newsletter issue on our website. You can access it by logging in through the secure members login button.

Newsletter Contents

The newsletter contains three sections:

Performance Tracking and Analysis
Market Commentary
Recommended Model Portfolio Allocations

How to Read the "Recommended Model Portfolio Allocations" Section

The final section of the investment newsletter covers the currently recommended investment allocations for each Model Portfolio. The table provides all of the information you should need to structure your investment portfolio in accordance with one of the Model Portfolios. Notice that the table is organized into three different columns which represent the three different sources we recommend for the types of investments held in our Model Portfolios.

Also note that you will get the same table of information in each Trade Alert.

It Tells You the Types of Investments: The table tells you the specific types of investment funds that are included in the recommended portfolio at that time – such as a Large Cap stock fund, an International stock fund or a Money Market Fund, for example.

It Tells You the Ticker Symbols: We then tell you the specific “ticker symbol” for each type of investment fund provided by the three recommended, alternative sources – a) Rydex Funds mutual fund family of investments, b) ProFunds mutual fund family of investments or c) exchange traded funds (ETFs) which can be accessed through any broker. (We recommend these three different approaches because they will minimize your transactions fees). Ticker symbols are a unique identifier attached to every individual stock and mutual fund. It can be very helpful to know the ticker symbol of an investment when you talk to your broker or deal with an online brokerage system.

It Tells You the Allocation Amount: The table then tells you the percentage allocation for each different investment fund. You should note that the percentages will add up to 100%. Also note that the percentages are shown three times, once in each of the three columns labeled “Rydex Funds”, “ProFunds” and ETFs (we do this because sometimes the percentages will be different).

If you are investing within a 401k or 403b plan, then you will need to make your own determination of which available fund alternatives in your plan match up with our recommendations.

If you are planning to invest using Rydex Fund’s mutual funds, then you should follow the percentage allocations shown in the “Rydex” column. If you will be investing in ProFund’s mutual funds, then follow the percentages in the “ProFunds” column.

If you are an exchange traded funds(ETF)investor, then follow the percentage allocations in the “ETF” column.

If you don’t yet understand why we recommend that you access our recommended investment fund options through either Rydex Funds, ProFunds or exchange traded funds (ETFs), then you should read What Brokers Do You Recommend?

How to Read the "Performance Tracking and Analysis Report"

At the top of each investment newsletter is the Monthly Tracking Report. The table shows the cumulative gain or loss for each Model Portfolio over five different time frames. The table also shows the cumulative gain or loss over the same periods for a traditional “Buy and Hold” strategy. We have simulated the Buy and Hold performance of a typical mutual fund investor by tracking the Standard & Poors 500 Index (S&P 500). Most broadly based stock mutual funds in the U.S. use the S&P 500 Index as a benchmark for their own performance. As a result, the S&P 500 provides a good estimate of the average mutual fund’s performance over time.

We Provide Performance Data Over Multiple Time Periods: The Monthly Tracking Report first shows you how each of the Model Portfolios performed in the previous month. Then it reports the “year-to-date” performance as of the end of the previous month. Next it reports performance over the previous 12-month period. Finally, it shows the Model Portfolios’ cumulative gain or loss over the previous 3-year (36 month) and 7-year periods. Note that the cumulative performance figures factor in the annual reinvestment of gains and losses. They represent the compound pre-tax growth of the investment and assume no transaction fees. As such, these figures accurately reflect the growth of a tax-deferred account such as an IRA held with a mutual fund company that does not charge any loads or fees on transactions (such as Rydex or ProFunds).

Just beneath the Monthly Tracking Report, you will find our analysis of the performance figures reported in the table.

How to Read the "Market Commentary"

Since the computerized market timing logic in our Model Portfolio strategies is based upon the tools of technical analysis, we will spend some time each month discussing the market from a technical point of view. Many investors have not been exposed to this alternative form of market analysis. So our intention is to provide you with a brief overview each month of what our mathematically based analytics are telling us about the market. We try to avoid getting too technical in our investment newsletters and stick to high-level concepts. But you may find this alternative viewpoint to be a refreshing change from the type of commentary you normally hear on TV or read in the paper.

You should understand that our Model Portfolio strategies are mechanical investment systems. They are based upon a pre-defined set of logical rules driven by quantifiable market statistics. As such, each model is a “closed system” in that it operates like a “black box”. By contrast, our monthly commentary is more open-ended in that we look at a broader set of statistics and factors than those that drive our Model Portfolios’ logic. As a result, there are times when our views on the market diverge somewhat from those of the models.

You should simply note that our commentary does not always exactly reflect the mechanical models’ thinking.

But we don’t try to “second guess” our models in the Model Portfolio recommendations when our views are somewhat different. The models have been statistically tested over decades of market history. If we tried to second guess their logic, we would introduce our own biases and emotions which is exactly what we don’t want to do.