Model Portfolio Allocation Changes- This Week
Small Cap Stocks Lead Once Again
The market recovered nicely last week, advancing 1.8% to recover most of the steep losses from the week before. Small Cap stocks significantly out-performed, gaining 4.0%. Also, Mid Cap stocks ... which have out-performed for several months ... gained 2.4%.
- The recent performance of Small Cap stocks has now been strong enough that our Model Portfolios are triggering them back into the portfolio mix (see portfolio changes below).
Bull Market Trend is Intact: So far the market's bullish up-trend is intact and the break-out January 6th above the 1268 level on the S&P 500 Index has held. This is all good news. And the return of Small Cap stocks to a leadership position is a positive indication that this bullish move has a ways to go.
However, our analysis of longer-term indicators of the market's underlying health suggest that we may be in the final stage of the bull market that began over three years ago. As a result, we should expect an increase in market volatility during the next several months and an eventual break-down in the market that should lead either to a deep correction or a new bear market cycle.
In the Performance Xtender -- This model portfolio has triggered a shift out of the 20% allocation in a Large Cap stock fund, putting the proceeds into a Small Cap stock fund. The move does not reduce the portfolio's overall exposure to the stock market.
In the Max Xtender -- This model is shifting part of its leveraged Mid Cap stock position into a leveraged Small Cap fund. This change leaves the model portfolio with a 1.5-times exposure to the stock market but changes the mix to a blend between Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks. Taking the leverage into account, the new allocation mix is 1/3rd Mid Cap and 2/3rds Small Cap.
Model Portfolio: Performance Xtender
Model Portfolio: Max Xtender
New Model Portfolio Allocations
Model Portfolio: Performance Xtender
Model Portfolio Details
The tables below provide the percentage allocation details and mutual fund ticker symbols for investors following the Model Portfolios by using funds from either of the Rydex Investments or ProFunds mutual fund companies -- or alternatively, investors using exchange traded funds (ETFs).
'Performance Xtender'
(A model portfolio that invests selectively in stock market index funds, plus certain market sectors such as Energy, Gold and Real Estate, and in an Inverse Fund ("Bear Fund"), depending on current market trends for each type of investment. The allocation mix is designed to beat the market significantly during both bull and bear markets with only limited risk of volatility.)
| Model Portfolio Changes for this week | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| SELL LargeCap Fund | 20% | RYZAX | 20% | BLPIX | 20% | SPY |
| BUY SmallCap Fund | 20% | RYAZX | 20% | SLPIX | 20% | IWM |
| Corporate Bonds, or Cash |
- | |||||
| New Model Portfolio Allocations | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| SmallCap Stock Fund | 20% | RYAZX | 20% | SLPIX | 20% | IWM |
| Gold Stocks Fund | 20% | RYPMX | 15% | PMPIX | 20% | GLD |
| Energy Stocks Fund | 20% | RYEIX | 15% | ENPIX | 20% | XLE |
| MidCap Stock Fund | 40% | RYAVX | 40% | MDPIX | 40% | MDY |
| Corporate Bonds, or Cash |
Money Market Funds: ProFunds investors only should be holding a 10% allocation in Money Market. | |||||
'Max Xtender'
(A model portfolio that invests selectively in stock market index funds and in an Inverse Fund ("Bear Fund"), depending on current market trends for each type of investment. During strong market trends ... either bullish or bearish ... the model uses up to 2-to-1 leverage to magnify returns. The allocation mix is designed to beat the market substantially during both bull and bear markets but with a relatively high risk of volatility.)
| Model Portfolio Changes for this week | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| SELL Lev'd MidCap | - | - | 50% | UMPIX | 100% | MDY |
| BUY Lev'd SmallCap | - | - | 50% | UAPIX | 100% | IWM |
| Corporate Bonds, or Cash |
NOTE: There is no change for Rydex fund investors because Rydex has neither a leveraged SmallCap nor MidCap fund ... we have substituted a leveraged LargeCap instead.- | |||||
| New Model Portfolio Allocations | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| Lev'd SmallCap Fund | 50% | RYTNX | 50% | UAPIX | 100% | IWM |
| UnLev'd MidCap Fund | 50% | RYAVX | 50% | MDPIX | 50% | MDY |
| Corporate Bonds, or Cash |
ETF Investors: Note that the MDY position is un-margined and IWM is margined 2-to-1. Rydex Investors: Note that Rydex does not have a leveraged SmallCap fund, so we have substituted RYTNX. | |||||
