Model Portfolio Allocation Changes- This Week
Energy Stocks Breakout to the Upside
Crude Oil broke through its previous highs around $72/barrel last week, setting a new all-time high near $75. Likewise, Energy stocks have moved out of their previous correction and also broke last week into new all-time high territory. And, the Performance Xtender model has once again triggered a purchase in this sector.
Energy stocks have been in a Bull Market since 2002, reflecting strongly rising prices across the entire Energy Complex. We keep thinking that this sector's performance has been somewhat overheated and pushed along by too much speculation. We have been concerned about the potential for a steep correction. But the Performance Xtender model has gingerly moved in and out of the sector to capture much of its appreciation ... getting in near the beginning of sustained upward rallies, and getting out during temporary weakness. The model's objective, of course, is to capture most of the upside and yet protect against any steep losses.
Once again, the model is jumping back in. The action of both Crude Oil and Energy stocks strongly suggest that their Bull Market trend is intact and extending for at least one more upward leg. However, at some point we expect one of these break-outs to "fail" and trigger a significant correction.
Stock Market Struggles to Keep Bull Trend Intact: The stock market delivered a very nice "pop" last week but almost all of the action came on one day and was not followed by any signs of a reigniting bull. From a longer-term perspective, the market is still trying to hold its previous break-out of March 14th. That was the day when the S&P 500 index finally exceeded the previous high of 1294 it set back on January 11. Since the March 14th break-out, the market has only been able to appreciate by 1.3% ... and in the process the market broke down once below the 1294 level before recovering this past week.
While the market's bull market trend technically remains intact, to remain bullish here we will need to see a more robust response from investors soon. The market's deteriorating technical statistics have already triggered our models to reduce exposure and take a more defensive posture.
In the Performance Xtender : This model has triggered a new purchase of an Energy stock fund, establishing a 20% allocation. The purchase will reduce the model's existing 40% money market fund investment down to a new allocation of only 20%.
New Model Portfolio Allocations
Model Portfolio: Performance Xtender
Model Portfolio Details
The tables below provide the percentage allocation details and mutual fund ticker symbols for investors following the Model Portfolios by using funds from either of the Rydex Investments or ProFunds mutual fund companies -- or alternatively, investors using exchange traded funds (ETFs).
'Performance Xtender'
(A model portfolio that invests selectively in stock market index funds, plus certain market sectors such as Energy, Gold and Real Estate, and in an Inverse Fund ("Bear Fund"), depending on current market trends for each type of investment. The allocation mix is designed to beat the market significantly during both bull and bear markets with only limited risk of volatility.)
| Model Portfolio Changes for this week | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| BUY Energy Fund | 20% | RYEIX | 15% | ENPIX | 20% | XLE |
| Corporate Bonds, or Money Market |
To complete the purchase, reduce money market funds by 1/2. ProFunds Investors: Invest only a 15% allocation in ENPIX. | |||||
| New Model Portfolio Allocations | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| LargeCap Stock Fund | 40% | RYZAX | 40% | BLPIX | 40% | SPY |
| Gold Stock Fund | 20% | RYPMX | 15% | PMPIX | 20% | GLD |
| Energy Stock Fund | 20% | RYEIX | 15% | ENPIX | 20% | XLE |
| Corporate Bonds, or Money Market |
Money Market Funds: 20% ... ProFunds investors only should be holding a 30% allocation in Money Market. | |||||
'Max Xtender'
(A model portfolio that invests selectively in stock market index funds and in an Inverse Fund ("Bear Fund"), depending on current market trends for each type of investment. During strong market trends ... either bullish or bearish ... the model uses up to 2-to-1 leverage to magnify returns. The allocation mix is designed to beat the market substantially during both bull and bear markets but results in a relatively high risk of volatility.)
| Model Portfolio Changes for this week | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| No Changes | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Corporate Bonds, or Money Market |
. | |||||
| New Model Portfolio Allocations | Rydex Funds | ProFunds | ETFs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | Allocation | Ticker | |
| Lev'd LargeCap Fund | 50% | RYTNX | 50% | ULPIX | 150% | SPY |
| UnLev'd LargeCaps | 50% | RYZAX | 50% | BLPIX | - | - |
| Corporate Bonds, or Money Market |
ETF Investors: Note that the SPY position is margined 1.5 to 1. | |||||
