The Performance Extension Series www.confidentstrategies.com
Trade Alert - July 17, 2005

Recommended Portfolio Allocation Changes- This Week

The S&P 500 Hits 4-Year Highs


There was good follow-through last week on the market's positive reversal the previous week when our indicators triggered a stepped-up bullish posture. There will likely be some profit-taking in the coming weeks but all of our technical indicators now say the bull is back.

We have only one change this week in an investment model:

In the Performance Xtender -- The model triggered a sale of our 20% position in Energy stocks. The Energy Complex, including crude oil, has lost positive momentum in recent weeks vs. the rest of the stock market. And crude oil may have signaled an intermediate top this past week that could usher in a multi-month correction. Energy stocks followed suit and also may have signaled a top. The model is reallocating the proceeds from the sale of Energy into a Large Cap stock fund.

There were three extremely positive developments this past week. First, the apparent reversal and breakdown in the price of crude oil should be very bullish for the market in the next several months. Second, technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100 Index had a huge move during the week. A stong technology sector should also be very bullish for the market. Third, the broadly-based S&P 500 Index made a very significant breakout in the market by establishing new 4-year highs. This accomplishment should also augur well for the market. And, across the board, most individual market sectors are now advancing nicely.

It was facinating to see the market's reaction to the terrorist bombings in London, since the market has been almost straight up since then. Such market behavior in the face of such bad news is another positive sign that this bull has at least one more good move left in him.

Model Portfolio: Performance Xtender

SELL ______ Energy Sector Fund

BUY _______ Large Cap Stock Fund

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Model Portfolio: Max Xtender

No Change

 

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TopRecommended Portfolio Allocations

These are the new portfolio allocations, reflecting the changes above ...

Model Portfolio: Performance Xtender

40%        Large Cap Stock Fund

20%        Small Cap Stock Fund

40%        Mid Cap Stock Fund

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Model Portfolio: Max Xtender

50%        Leveraged Small Cap Fund

50%        Leveraged Mid Cap Fund

 

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TopModel Portfolio Details

'Performance Xtender'


Recommended Changes for this week Rydex Funds ProFunds ETFs
Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker
SELL Energy Fund 20% RYEIX 15% ENPIX 20% XLE
BUY Large Cap Fund 20% RYZAX 20% BLPIX 20% SPY
Corporate Bonds
Cash
If you are following this Model Portfolio with ProFunds investments, you should use the remaining 5% money market balance to complete the trade.

Current Recommended Portfolio Allocations Rydex Funds ProFunds ETFs
Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker
LargeCap Fund 40% RYZAX 40% BLPIX 40% SPY
MidCap Fund 40% RYAVX 40% MDPIX 40% MDY
SmallCap Fund 20% RYAZX 20% SLPIX 20% IWM
Corporate Bonds
Cash
 


'Max Xtender'


Recommended Changes for this week Rydex Funds ProFunds ETFs
Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker
             
Corporate Bonds
Cash
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Current Recommended Portfolio Allocations Rydex Funds ProFunds ETFs
Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker Allocation Ticker
Lev'd SmallCap Fund 50% RYTNX 50% UAPIX 100% IWM
Lev'd MidCap Fund 50% RYTNX 50% UMPIX 100% MDY
Corporate Bonds
Cash
NOTE: Rydex does not have leveraged SmallCap or MidCap funds. Therefore, their leveraged LargeCap fund (RYTNX) is substituted. ETF investors should be 100% margined in both IWM and MDY, for a fully invested 200% position.