Our newsletters only provide you with recommendations on how you can manage your investment portfolio. We are not brokers and cannot handle your transactions or manage your money directly.

Do you manage money or just make recommendations?

We simply make recommendations. We do not manage money.

Can I use your recommendations to manage my 401k or 403b plan?

Yes. Two of our Model Portfolio strategies (in the “Benchmark Series” newsletter) are specifically designed with investment options that are found in most employor-sponsored plans.

What about my Individual Retirement Account (IRA)?

Yes, you can use our Model Portfolio recommendations to help you manage your IRA account.

Do you make individual stock and bond recommendations?

No, we only recommend mutual fund-type investments … specifically in the form of Index Funds, Sector Funds and Exchange Traded Funds.

What are Index Funds, and why do you recommend them?

Index Funds are a special type of mutual fund designed to track the ups and downs of a particular market index or industry sector index. Common examples of index funds are ones that track the Standard & Poors 500 Index or the Russell 2000 Small cap stock index. We use them because our investment management approach is oriented around the analysis of different market indexes. Plus, since our investment strategies require us to be “nimble” and make somewhat frequent changes to our portfolio allocations, using Index Funds is a much more efficient approach in terms of minimizing transaction costs and the time it takes you to execute the changes. For more information, read: Why We Recommend Index Funds and Exchange Traded Funds.

Can I use Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) instead of Index Funds?

Yes, for each Model Portfolio strategy we also provide an ETF ticker symbol for each investment recommendation.

Do you recommend any brokers or mutual fund companies?

Yes, review the following page for our recommendations: What Brokers do You Recommend?

Are the investment returns for your strategies taxable?

Yes. If you are managing your money within a taxable brokerage or mutual fund account, then the returns will mostly be taxable at the short-term capital gains rate. If you are managing your money within a tax-deferred account, such as a 401k, 403b, Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or variable annuity product, then the gains should be tax deferred. We suggest that you confer with a tax advisor on this subject.

How often is your newsletter published?

Our newsletters are published after the end of each month. From time to time, we will also issue “Trade Alerts” during the month if an investment change is recommended by a Model Portfolio strategy. Typically, each strategy will require a change somewhere between 7-times and 15-times per year.

Can I receive it through the regular mail?

No, we only publish currently through email.

How will I know when to make a change in my portfolio?

You will receive a “Trade Alert” through the email. Normally, the Trade Alerts are issued over a weekend so you can execute the recommended change on Monday or Tuesday of the following week. In rare circumstances, a Trade Alert might be issued during the middle of a week.

What if I am having a problem with my email account or system?

If you are not receiving emails due to a problem, you can check our website at ConfidentStrategies.com to see if any Trade Alerts have been issued. You will be able to access any recent Trade Alerts through the “Members” login.

What do I do if I have changed by email address?

There is a simple fix that doesn’t require contacting us. Simply login through the “Members” login on our website at ConfidentStrategies.com. Then click on “Administrate my Profile”. From there you can change the email address used in our system.

How do I find out the riskiness of your strategies?

The best way is to review the following page: What are Your Risk-Adjusted Returns?

How have your annual returns compared to other investment newsletters?

Very well. See How We Compare With Other Investment Newsletters.

For how long do you have actual, live performance data on your models?

Our seven years of historical returns on each model portfolio are a blend of actual, live returns and computer-simulated returns (developed by backtesting each model's logic against actual historical market data). Computer-simulated returns are used up to the date when we began to formally track live data for each model. The starting dates for each model are different: We began tracking live performance results for the Conservative Portfolio on Janaury 1, 2003 ... therefore the annual returns we show for this model in 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002 are based upon computer simulation. The years 2003, 2004 and 2005 are live, actual returns. The Growth Portfolio also has a live start date of January 1, 2003. The Max Xtender's live data begins Janaury 1, 2004 and the Performance Xtender's began on June 1, 2004. Read More About "Backtesting".

Does an independent, third party track your performance results?

Yes, our performance is being tracked by TimerTrac.com which specializes in the independent tracking and verification of the performance of market timing and asset allocation services.

Should I use just one of your model portfolio strategies to manage my entire investment portfolio?

You certainly could. Our Model Portfolio strategies are designed for this purpose. They are meant to manage an entire portfolio and flexibly adjust investment allocations over time to try to maximize total return while also manage total portfolio risk within a given parameter. (The one exception to this is our riskier strategy – the “Max Xtender” – which is designed as a more speculative, high-yielding strategy that should only be included as an allocation within a larger portfolio mix). However, you may have a reason to use one of our strategies for one part of your portfolio and a different strategy to guide another part of your portfolio. For example, you may want to follow one of our “Benchmark Series” strategies just for your 401k plan at work. In addition, you may want to manage most of your “taxable” portfolio in a brokerage account following the “Performance Xtender” strategy. Then, you could also take perhaps a 10% allocation of your total portfolio for a more speculative strategy by following the “Max Xtender” model. The particular combination that is best for you will be a function of your own situation. We advise you to discuss it with your financial advisor.

Isn’t “market timing” a bad thing?

The term “market timing” has been mis-used by the Press to describe a type of illegal arbitrage that mainly involved international mutual funds. With international mutual funds that trade at the end-of-day “net asset value”, there is a large time difference between when the funds price in the U.S. and when the underlying securities actually closed overseas. The time difference created an opportunity to make a riskless trade, properly called “arbitrage”. The kind of long-term market timing we do is perfectly legal.

Mutual Fund Companies, however, tend not to like market timers. The business model of the large investment companies is to get a hold of your investment assets and hold on to them. That is how they make money. So, they don’t like people that move in and out. Because of the recent media scare over “market timing”, the mutual fund companies have mostly taken advantage of the climate to introduce Early Redemption Fees to make it economically unattractive for market timers to use their mutual funds. But there are two Mutual Fund Companies that have always aimed to attract mutual fund market times: ProFunds, Inc. and Rydex Investments. They don’t charge any Early Redemption Fees, Loads or Transaction Fees. We highly recommend them for following our model portfolio strategies. (The trade-off is that their management fees are somewhat higher than most. But it is worth it to avoid upfront loads and early redemption fees).

Most professionals in the money-management business also dislike “market timing.” This is partially because they were trained academically in the belief that market timing doesn’t work. This is not surprising since it has only been within the past 10 to 15 years that truly effective, computer-based market timing techniques have evolved. Increasingly, managers of large portfolios and individual financial planners are using these techniques every day. But for most of them, publicly supporting market timing doesn’t serve their “institutional” best interests. You should not be surprised if your financial advisor tells you that market timing doesn’t work. And, you may be told about “studies” that supposedly prove their point. But understand that effective market timing is a relatively new thing and that your advisor may be talking either from self-interest, or ignorance, or both. The best antidote to this misinformation will be to follow our strategies’ performance over time and see the results for yourself.

An important nuance to understand is that critics of market timing like to attack on the basis that it is impossible to prove any technique’s ability to consistently “predict” the future. But it is not about prediction at all. What market timing techniques do well is “follow” a market trend. Being able to tightly follow the trend of a market gives the investor a huge edge over a buy and hold investor. The fact that following trends works so well is because market trends exist … and they tend to persist. Markets are not just a jumble of “noise”. Take a look yourself at a longer term chart of just about anything and you will see the clear periods of trend behavior. Also, trends are more consistent and persistent in broadly based market indexes that have averaged out the noise element among the many individual investments included in the index. That is why our method revolves around using Index Funds.

What do you mean by “long term market timing”?

We mean timing the market’s trends for periods of time that last months. Our models key off of changes in market trends that tend to persist for 3 to 6 months, typically.

What do you mean by a “mechanical” investment strategy?

By a “mechanical” strategy, we mean one that is based upon hard-encoded computer logic, similar to the gears of a machine. Such strategies are mechanical because there is no human element involved at the time of the decision. A change recommended by the computer model is taken without regard for any other factors that a human might take into account at the time of the decision. Many investors like mechanical strategies simply because they do eliminate the human, emotional element. It is all too easy for a human to analyze any given situation with an element of “bias” and to introduce emotional factors into the decision. Many experienced investors have found that following mechanical strategies with a sound basis in statistical logic leads to superior results in the long run. It is an excellent way to ensure a disciplined approach in your investing.

How do your investment strategies work, exactly?

Our strategies are all based upon statistically-based computer models that analyze the changing conditions in the market and produce a recommended Model Portfolio that is simple in structure and easy to manage. For more information read: How Do Your Strategies Work? and Technical Factors Used in Our Models.

How long have you been using these strategies?

The original version of the logic was developed in the mid-1990’s and we have used it ever since, making periodic changes for improvement and developing several different versions.

How do I know which strategy is more appropriate for me?

It will depend upon your own circumstances and you may find that none of our strategies are appropriate for you. If you are not a “growth investor” to some degree, then you may not want any of our strategies. For example, if you are investing simply for “current income” and just need to earn a safe return to cover your current lifestyle, then you are not a growth investor. If your main investment objective is “capital preservation” (in other words, you don’t want to lose any money, not even a small amount) then you are not a growth investor. If you are a growth investor, even a conservative growth investor (nearing retirement perhaps), then you should review the page Which Strategy is Best for Me? for more information that should help you choose between the different model portfolios.